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SPAIN: Non-residential real-estate investment may fall by 15% in 2016

By the end of the year's third quarter, commercial real-estate investment (office buildings, retail space, warehouses and hotels) accounted for €6,188 million, according to investment company JLL, which means a 12% drop when compared to the same period last year. It is however also a recovery, as by the end of the first half, investment had plummeted by 32% in relation to 2015.

According to JLL's end of the year forecast, total investment will amount to €8,000 million. In spite of the year-over-year 15% fall, "this is a very encouraging figure, showing investors' great interest in continuing to buy in Spain", JLL's Capital Markets Director Borja Ortega points out. "Investors prefer to do their shopping at the last minute. A number of transactions will be concluded, or have just been concluded, during the last quarter, making the total invested volume rise", he adds.

JLL's spokesman has mentioned the Adequa business park, marketed by JLL and bought by Merlin Properties for about €380M, as a clear example of investment-boosting operations carried out in the last three months of 2016.

 

Investment in logistics surpasses 2015 figures. Retail segment may follow suit

Broken down by segments, JLL data show that only logistics has improved last year's performance. Investment in logistics up until October has accounted for €516 million, almost double the €266 million reached in the first nine months of 2015. In fact, these figures surpass those recorded for the whole of last year, which totalled €444 million.

On the other hand, the retail sector has played a leading role in the first nine months of 2016, by accounting for a volume of investment worth €2,528 million, only 5% lower than that of the same period last year. Indeed, the data obtained by JLL show that retail investment may reach last year's volume of €3,060 million, or even surpass that amount if some transactions currently under way are concluded before the end of the year.

 

Investment in office buildings and hotels drops

Of all the commercial sector, investment in office buildings has lagged behind with a 29% fall regarding the third quarter of 2015. In fact, investment in this segment has accounted for €1,533 million — including the standout sale of the Cepsa Tower —, whereas it had reached €2,189 million in 2015.

Finally, investment in the hotel segment currently accounts for €1,590 million, that is, a 17% drop when compared to the same period of the previous year.