Investment in commercial real estate is expected to close the year at €2.8 billion, an increase of around 25% compared to 2024 and above the average recorded in recent years. This performance reflects the strong transactional activity seen throughout the year, in a context of sustained demand and good operational performance in the main market segments. The estimates are provided by JLL.
Retail once again leads the way in transactions, accounting for 40% of the total volume, driven mainly by shopping centres. This is followed by the hotel and office sectors, both with shares of around 20%, confirming the diversification of investment.
From a geographical point of view, the North stands out, capturing around half of the total investment, consolidating its position on the real estate investment map. There is also a greater weight of national capital in transactions, in a year marked by compressed yields and a strengthened perception of Portugal as a stable, low-risk real estate market.
Carlos Cardoso, CEO of JLL Portugal, states that "investment will end the year strongly. We are seeing a return to levels close to €3 billion, driven both by the consistency of international capital and the increased capacity of domestic investors to act. This demonstrates renewed confidence in the country and in the quality of our assets, in a market that is increasingly diversified in terms of sectors and geographies, and which is now more mature, competitive and resilient. We are entering 2026 on a solid footing and with a very positive outlook for the continuation of this trajectory".
In the office market, prime rents in Lisbon reached historic highs, settling at €30/sqm/month in the Prime CBD and €25/sqm/month in the CBD. Cumulative take-up through November totalled 149,000 sqm, down 23% year-on-year, mainly reflecting the mismatch between supply and demand after an exceptionally strong year. By the end of 2025, take-up is expected to be between 160,000 and 170,000 sqm. In Porto, office take-up is estimated at between 35,000 and 40,000 sqm, about half of that recorded in 2024, with prime rents stable at €21/sqm/month.
In retail, prime rents also reached historic highs, especially in high street retail, with values of €145/sqm/month in Lisbon and €85/sqm/month in Porto, while in prime shopping centres the benchmark stands at €130/sqm/month. Growth in private consumption and tourism has sustained this performance, in a context still marked by a shortage of quality supply.
In the industrial and logistics segment, demand continues to be constrained by a lack of suitable product. Despite the decline in take-up after the peak in 2024, rents continue to rise in areas of expansion, with annual occupancy volumes in line with the recent average and prospects for growth, given that 1,000,000 square metres are in the pipeline until 2028.
In the hotel sector, key operating indicators remain at historic highs, with Lisbon and Porto recording high levels of profitability. Investment continues to focus on improving the quality of supply, with a clear predominance of the 4- and 5-star segments and a stronger focus on luxury and new concepts geared towards international demand.
Andreia Almeida, Head of Research at JLL, comments that "the performance of the commercial market in 2025 highlights the structural strength of the Portuguese real estate sector. Prime rents reached new highs, even in contexts of more moderate absorption, due to limited adequate supply. Retail showed strong momentum, while offices and logistics remained under pressure due to a lack of stock, and hotels reinforced their qualitative growth cycle."
In housing, the year closes with a clearly positive balance, sustained by very active demand. Sales in the traditional segment grew by around 20% year-on-year, driven by stabilising interest rates and measures to support young people, in a context of limited supply. This pressure from demand is reflected in an accelerated rise in prices, which are up 17%, the largest annual increase in the European Union, with record values in several cities. In Lisbon, the average price reached 5,380 euros/sqm and in Porto 3,711 euros/sqm.
In the other living segments, growth potential remains high, given the shortage of supply. Senior residences cover only 14% of demand, while student residences account for 18% in Lisbon and 21% in Porto, with occupancy rates above 90%, keeping these assets in the focus of developers and investors, according to JLL.
“Overall, 2025 was a year of consolidation and appreciation for Portuguese real estate, which enters 2026 on very solid foundations and with positive prospects for all segments.”
Andreia Almeida anticipates that 2026 will bring some relief in the rate of increase in housing prices, with the continued strengthening of new supply, although still insufficient to meet needs. The recent measures announced by the Government, such as the reduction of VAT on construction to 6%, should have an effect on stimulating supply, with developers increasing their investment in large-scale projects in neighbouring areas, which may generate greater interest in newly built housing for rent. However, these measures will not have immediate effects and, for now, there is unlikely to be a sufficient supply shock to reverse the rise in prices.
Carlos Cardoso explains that 2026 "should be another year of strong performance in investment, occupancy, operation and valuation in both the commercial and residential sectors. Our real estate is of excellent quality, we are making a significant commitment to ESG and, especially in housing, we are in a position to start scaling up new supply. Fundamentally, Portugal continues to show robust economic growth, supported by resilient domestic demand, higher disposable income and high levels of employment. Stable interest rates, the liquidity of international investors and good business confidence indices complete the range of factors that make us look to the coming year with an optimistic outlook."
