The new logistics area planned in the Madrid and Barcelona markets for 2022 and 2023 amounts to almost three million square meters, according to Savills.
In the Spanish capital, 2021 closed with a stock of just over eleven million square meters and this figure is expected to reach 12.33 million this year. Since 2015, the stock has increased by more than 3.8 million square meters, which represents an increase of 52%, which the consultant expects to reach by the end of 2022, thereby setting a new record.
The average availability rate in Madrid stands at 9.3% in relation to the current stock and reaches one million square meters. The areas with the greatest availability are the Corredor del Henares, which brings together 59% of the availability, and the southern area, which represents 24% of the total.
Of the million square meters that are going to be incorporated this year, 20% are already pre-rented, and Savills estimates that in July this percentage will reach 50% or 60%, as happened in 2021. By 2023, the incorporation of , at least, 770,000 sqm in new projects, which already have some 100,000 sqm contracted in turnkey projects, which represents a total of 16%.
Looking to the future, the consultant highlights that the land market "will continue to heat up and reach record prices, there will be an increase in new projects for urban distribution, the excellent behavior of the first crowns is maintained and the trend towards logistics continues of the big box type between 30 and 50,000 sqm". In addition, thanks to the boost from e-commerce, good figures are expected in hiring levels for this year and the stabilization of rents with an upward trend in new promotions stands out.
Catalonia
In the last seven years, more than two million square meters have been added to Catalonia's logistics stock, with an increase of more than 32%, standing at almost nine million square meters, of which just over 200,000 sqm were available at year-end 2021.
In fact, availability in the downtown area is null and stands at 2.3% in the first crown, with a total of four assets. Thus, according to Savills, the second and third crowns have been consolidating due to their strategic location, more competitive prices and asset characteristics.
As for the future offer for 2022 and 2023, the report places it at more than one million square meters, of which 50% is already pre-rented or corresponds to self-promotion projects. Savills foresees that demand will continue at a good pace and we will continue to see an increase in the pre-let, the availability of built warehouses will continue to drop and there will be new contracting of turnkey projects, and the great interest in finalist land will continue, but, given its scarcity, there is a greater positioning in land with urban management. In addition, new projects are being consolidated in the second and third crowns, but new sources of interest will also emerge in those well-connected areas. As for prices, they describe an upward trend in some areas.
Valencia
In Valencia, for its part, 354,000 sqm have been incorporated into the logistics stock during 2021, with a prelet of almost 100%, reaching a total area of some 3.4 million square meters built. The greatest concentration of logistics space is found in the central axis, it corresponds to the intersection of the A3 with the A7 and represents 48% of the current stock, while there is 23% located in the southern axis.
By 2022, the international consultant expects the incorporation of 380,000 sqm built, with 81% already committed. The distribution of this new area is distributed in a similar way between the north, center and south axes, around 33% in each of them. The northern zone presents 86% of the committed area, due to the fact that most of the properties are self-promoted. The addition to the stock of projects with surfaces greater than 30,000 sqm stands out, which was one of the most pronounced deficiencies in the Valencia market.
Currently, the average availability in Valencia stands at 3.5%, with the highest availability rate in the central area, with 4.92%. The contracting has risen to almost 400,000 sqm, with a total of 49 operations and an absorption of 51% in the central axis. As for prices, in the prime area of Valencia they are around 4.50 euros/sqm/month.
Regarding the trends for this year, the report forecasts that in Valencia the good pace of demand and new logistics developments will continue, that rents in the prime zone will stabilize, but with a tendency to increase, and the consolidation of rents in the areas north and south for new logistics projects.
Andalusia
For the Andalusian logistics market, 2021 has been a year of consolidation. The focus continues on Malaga and Seville, but Savills points out that "we must not lose sight of areas like Cádiz, with the different projects that are being promoted from the Free Trade Zone", or the proactive attitude of the Huelva Port Authority, which is constantly promoting new actions.
According to the consultant, currently, the logistics stock available in Malaga, Seville and the coast is practically nil, and no new ceiling available in the market is expected in 2022. In the Malaga area, the boost in demand has made it possible to consolidate rents at five euros, which gives the market great returns and arouses strong interest from the investment market. As for Seville, the evolution of the market on a consolidated basis has caused a positive evolution of rents, with an increase of around 10%.
It is expected that, in the coming months, Malaga will incorporate state-of-the-art logistics properties, expanding the park and improving quality, and that rents will remain stable at their historical maximum. Seville will also add new projects to the available stock, but still at very low levels, and rents will experience moderate growth.
"According to our data, 58% of logistics operators and 46% of retailers expect to increase their warehouses in the next three years in Europe, with Spain being one of the most popular markets to increase their footprint. However, we still have There are many challenges ahead and challenges to resolve.Demand calls for quality, efficient and sustainable supply, and the proportion of adequate stock is still small for a strategic sector for the economy, which generates wealth and employment and is key to the development of cities of the future", explained Antonio Montero, executive director head of logistics at Savills Spain.
